2020 so far: health crisis, financial crisis, race crisis, and now a bitterly partisan upcoming Presidential Election.
“If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.” —Peter Lynch
The media is pounding you and me with new “market forecasts” based on who takes the White House in November. I have had conversations with many of you over the last few months regarding the upcoming Presidential election. Many of you are anxious and that is normal. While the current economic and political challenges may seem unrivaled, the reality is that controversy and uncertainty have surrounded every election. Does this time seem different?
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: This time is different”- Sir John Templeton
As we approach November, I’d like to share with you “10 Truths No Matter Who Wins”
1. Markets have performed well under both parties.
2. Investors are better off staying fully invested.
3. We do not radically re-engineer the U.S. Economy.
4. The historical narrative is not as you remember it.
5. Signature legislative accomplishments are infrequent, and the impact is not always as expected.
6. Predictions tend to be wrong.
7. Monetary policy matters more.
8. It’s okay if you don’t like the President. The market doesn’t care.
9. No, this is not the most vitriolic election.
10. Don’t confuse partisan politics with market analysis and keep your eye on one indicator.
And I’ll add a bonus: Optimism remains the only realism!
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All the best,
Bain