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Update- Russia/Ukraine

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time is different.”

-Sir John Templeton


The concerns and uncertainties are real, and the road ahead always has unforeseen bumps along the way. We join in praying for the people of Ukraine and their safety during these horrific events that are unfolding.

It is my belief that the current Russia/Ukraine event has very little to do with democracy.  It has to do with energy, which is the lifeblood of the Russian economy.  Russia supplies 40% of Europe’s heating fuel, in the form of natural gas.  One of the two aging pipelines through which gas is transmitted runs through Ukraine, which has recently shown a potential for greater ties to the West. 

I certainly don’t know “how” or “when” to suggest the Russia/Ukraine situation may resolve itself.  I am confident in my belief that when it ends, long-term, goal-focused investors (like us) will continue to be rewarded.  

With anxiety running high, here are some important numbers that should help calm some nerves.

  • The S&P 500 Index officially moved into a correction of 10% this week for the first time since March 2020. Since 1950, there has been an average of one 10% correction per year, so some volatility was likely simply due.
  • On average, the index sees a peak-to-trough correction of 14% in any given year, and even in up years there is an 11% correction on average.
  • Midterm election years tend to be among the most volatile out of the four-year presidential cycle. In fact, the average midterm year sees a peak-to-trough pullback of 17.1%, but stocks are up more than 30% off the lows on average a year later.

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All the Best, 








This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.  There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes.  Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.  Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.  References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index.  Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly.  Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges.  All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

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